Abstract:

Ground water drought events were derived by taking a truncation level through the time series of daily ground water depth that are recorded elevation differences between the water table and land surface at a well site. Droughts of various truncation levels at 70, 80, 90, and 95 percent, were obtained, where a 70 percent truncation level means that 70 percent of ground water depth data are less than or equal to the truncated value. The conditional probability that a drought occurring at a certain truncation level will prolong and advance to that of the next higher level was estimated. The regionalization analysis was conducted assuming that conditional probabilities estimated at selected wells are regionalized variables. Contour lines of conditional probabilities for each truncation level were constructed to express their spatial variability in the region. Estimation errors associated with the regionalization were reasonably small. (KEY TERMS: regionalization; drought; truncation level; ground water; conditional probability; time series.)

1. Paper No. 94008 of the Water Resources Bullentin. Discussions are open until August 1, 1996

2. Respectively, Professor, Civil Engeering Department, Ohio University, Athens, OH 45701; and Environmental Engineer, Harza Consulting Engineers and Scientists, Sears Tower, 233 South Wacker, Chicago, Illinois 60606.




For more information on this or any other paper contact Terry Chang by email at tjchang@bobcat.ent.ohiou.edu

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