Abstract:

Existing definitions of drought have focused on limited hydrologic indicators and are less effective for the purpose of drought monitoring. This study uses historical records of streamflow, precipitation, ground water, temperature, and lake elevation to define drought. Based on the method of truncation, drought durations and conditional probabilities of each indicator were estimated to define the drought severity levels, namely, 70 percent, 80 percent, 90 percent, and 95 percent. A drought monitoring method was developed by a combination of truncation level, duration, and conditional probabilities of five indicators. A six-month period of the 1988 drought in the central Ohio region was used to test the monitoring method. It was found that the developed method could effectively detect an occurrence of drought. (KEY TERMS: drought; precipitation; streamflow; ground water; temperature; reservoir; truncation level; conditional probability.)

1. Paper No. 91040 of the Water Resources Bulletin.
2. Respectively, Professor, Civil Engineering Department, Ohio University, 149 Stocker Center, Athens, OH 45701; and Engineer, Cybarco Ltd., 3 G. Vizienos, Flat 24, Nicosia 150, Cyprus.




For more information on this or any other paper contact Terry Chang by email at tjchang@bobcat.ent.ohiou.edu

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